Persistent threats to validity in single‐group interrupted time series analysis with a cross over design

Rationale, aims and objectivesThe basic single‐group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) design has been shown to be susceptible to the most common threat to validity—history—the possibility that some other event caused the observed effect in the time series. A single‐group ITSA with a crossover design (in which the intervention is introduced and withdrawn 1 or more times) should be more robust. In this paper, we describe and empirically assess the susceptibility of this design to bias from history.MethodTime series data from 2 natural experiments (the effect of multiple repeals and reinstatements of Louisiana’s motorcycle helmet law on motorcycle fatalities and the association between the implementation and withdrawal of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign with Russia’s mortality crisis) are used to illustrate that history remains a threat to ITSA validity, even in a crossover design.ResultsBoth empirical examples reveal that the single‐group ITSA with a crossover design may be biased because of history. In the case of motorcycle fatalities, helmet laws appeared effective in reducing mortality (while repealing the law increased mortality), but when a control group was added, it was shown that this trend was similar in both groups. In the case of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign, only when contrasting the results against those of a control group was the withdrawal of the campaign found to be the more likely culprit in explaining the Russian mortality crisis than the collapse of the Soviet Union.ConclusionsEven with a robust crossover design, single‐group ITSA models remain susceptible to bias from history. Therefore, a comparable control group design should be included, whenever possible.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/1/jep12668.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/2/jep12668_am.pd

Use of Ex Vivo Normothermic Perfusion for Quality Assessment of Discarded Human Donor Pancreases.

A significant number of pancreases procured for transplantation are deemed unsuitable due to concerns about graft quality and the associated risk of complications. However, this decision is subjective and some declined grafts may be suitable for transplantation. Ex vivo normothermic perfusion (EVNP) prior to transplantation may allow a more objective assessment of graft quality and reduce discard rates. We report ex vivo normothermic perfusion of human pancreases procured but declined for transplantation, with ABO-compatible warm oxygenated packed red blood cells for 1-2 h. Five declined human pancreases were assessed using this technique after a median cold ischemia time of 13 h 19 min. One pancreas, with cold ischemia over 30 h, did not appear viable and was excluded. In the remaining pancreases, blood flow and pH were maintained throughout perfusion. Insulin secretion was observed in all four pancreases, but was lowest in an older donation after cardiac death pancreas. Amylase levels were highest in a gland with significant fat infiltration. This is the first study to assess the perfusion, injury, as measured by amylase, and exocrine function of human pancreases using EVNP and demonstrates the feasibility of the approach, although further refinements are required.This study was financially supported by a grant from the Mason Medical Research Foundation.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available via Wiley at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajt.13303/abstract

Weak pairwise correlations imply strongly correlated network states in a neural population

Biological networks have so many possible states that exhaustive sampling is impossible. Successful analysis thus depends on simplifying hypotheses, but experiments on many systems hint that complicated, higher order interactions among large groups of elements play an important role. In the vertebrate retina, we show that weak correlations between pairs of neurons coexist with strongly collective behavior in the responses of ten or more neurons. Surprisingly, we find that this collective behavior is described quantitatively by models that capture the observed pairwise correlations but assume no higher order interactions. These maximum entropy models are equivalent to Ising models, and predict that larger networks are completely dominated by correlation effects. This suggests that the neural code has associative or error-correcting properties, and we provide preliminary evidence for such behavior. As a first test for the generality of these ideas, we show that similar results are obtained from networks of cultured cortical neurons.Comment: Full account of work presented at the conference on Computational and Systems Neuroscience (COSYNE), 17-20 March 2005, in Salt Lake City, Utah (http://cosyne.org

Turbulent flow at 190 m height above London during 2006-2008: A climatology and the applicability of similarity theory

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ_i/u_* values (i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth

Cognitive-Behavior Therapy (CBT) for Panic Disorder: Relationship of Anxiety and Depression Comorbidity with Treatment Outcome

Research evaluating the relationship of comorbidity to treatment outcome for panic disorder has produced mixed results. The current study examined the relationship of comorbid depression and anxiety to treatment outcome in a large-scale, multi-site clinical trial for cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT) for panic disorder. Comorbidity was associated with more severe panic disorder symptoms, although comorbid diagnoses were not associated with treatment response. Comorbid generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) were not associated with differential improvement on a measure of panic disorder severity, although only rates of comorbid GAD were significantly lower at posttreatment. Treatment responders showed greater reductions on measures of anxiety and depressive symptoms. These data suggest that comorbid anxiety and depression are not an impediment to treatment response, and successful treatment of panic disorder is associated with reductions of comorbid anxiety and depressive symptoms. Implications for treatment specificity and conceptual understandings of comorbidity are discussed

Intrinsic activity in the fly brain gates visual information during behavioral choices

The small insect brain is often described as an input/output system that executes reflex-like behaviors. It can also initiate neural activity and behaviors intrinsically, seen as spontaneous behaviors, different arousal states and sleep. However, less is known about how intrinsic activity in neural circuits affects sensory information processing in the insect brain and variability in behavior. Here, by simultaneously monitoring Drosophila's behavioral choices and brain activity in a flight simulator system, we identify intrinsic activity that is associated with the act of selecting between visual stimuli. We recorded neural output (multiunit action potentials and local field potentials) in the left and right optic lobes of a tethered flying Drosophila, while its attempts to follow visual motion (yaw torque) were measured by a torque meter. We show that when facing competing motion stimuli on its left and right, Drosophila typically generate large torque responses that flip from side to side. The delayed onset (0.1-1 s) and spontaneous switch-like dynamics of these responses, and the fact that the flies sometimes oppose the stimuli by flying straight, make this behavior different from the classic steering reflexes. Drosophila, thus, seem to choose one stimulus at a time and attempt to rotate toward its direction. With this behavior, the neural output of the optic lobes alternates; being augmented on the side chosen for body rotation and suppressed on the opposite side, even though the visual input to the fly eyes stays the same. Thus, the flow of information from the fly eyes is gated intrinsically. Such modulation can be noise-induced or intentional; with one possibility being that the fly brain highlights chosen information while ignoring the irrelevant, similar to what we know to occur in higher animals

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors have proven efficacy in the treatment of panic disorder, obsessive–compulsive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and social anxiety disorder. Accumulating data shows that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment can also be efficacious in patients with generalized anxiety disorder. This review summarizes the findings of randomized controlled trials of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor treatment for generalized anxiety disorder, examines the strengths and weaknesses of other therapeutic approaches and considers potential new treatments for patients with this chronic and disabling anxiety disorder

Effect of maternal panic disorder on mother-child interaction and relation to child anxiety and child self-efficacy

To determine whether mothers with panic disorder with or without agoraphobia interacted differently with their children than normal control mothers, 86 mothers and their adolescents (aged between 13 and 23 years) were observed during a structured play situation. Maternal as well as adolescent anxiety status was assessed according to a structured diagnostic interview. Results showed that mothers with panic disorder/agoraphobia showed more verbal control, were more criticizing and less sensitive during mother-child interaction than mothers without current mental disorders. Moreover, more conflicts were observed between mother and child dyadic interactions when the mother suffered from panic disorder. The comparison of parenting behaviors among anxious and non-anxious children did not reveal any significant differences. These findings support an association between parental over-control and rejection and maternal but not child anxiety and suggest that particularly mother anxiety status is an important determinant of parenting behavior. Finally, an association was found between children’s perceived self-efficacy, parental control and child anxiety symptoms

Information transmission in oscillatory neural activity

Periodic neural activity not locked to the stimulus or to motor responses is usually ignored. Here, we present new tools for modeling and quantifying the information transmission based on periodic neural activity that occurs with quasi-random phase relative to the stimulus. We propose a model to reproduce characteristic features of oscillatory spike trains, such as histograms of inter-spike intervals and phase locking of spikes to an oscillatory influence. The proposed model is based on an inhomogeneous Gamma process governed by a density function that is a product of the usual stimulus-dependent rate and a quasi-periodic function. Further, we present an analysis method generalizing the direct method (Rieke et al, 1999; Brenner et al, 2000) to assess the information content in such data. We demonstrate these tools on recordings from relay cells in the lateral geniculate nucleus of the cat.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Biological Cybernetic